A new Survation poll of more than 10,000 people has found that 63% of Britons would vote to rejoin the European Union in a new referendum, with only 37% choosing to stay out. The margin between the two options is 26 percentage points – representing a swing of 30 points from the 52-48 result that delivered Brexit in June 2016.
The sample size matters here. Most political polls draw on around 1,000 to 2,000 respondents. Survation surveyed more than 10,000 – a significantly larger base that gives the findings more statistical weight. The results mark the most comprehensive snapshot yet of how far public opinion has moved in the decade since the original vote.
The swing in full
Brexit was won in 2016 with 51.9% voting Leave against 48.1% Remain – a margin of 3.8 percentage points. Survation’s new polling puts Rejoin on 63% and Stay Out on 37% – a gap of 26 points in the opposite direction. To move from a 3.8-point Lead loss to a 26-point Rejoin lead is a total swing of roughly 30 points over ten years.
This is consistent with the broader direction of travel seen across multiple recent polls. YouGov polling found nearly two-thirds of Britons would vote to rejoin in a new referendum. A separate ECFR survey found 66% believe Brexit has made every major issue they care about worse. Ipsos found half of Britons want a second referendum, including a quarter of those who originally voted Leave.
Brexit identity is loosening
One of the more significant findings in the Survation data concerns Brexit identity rather than voting intention. Alina Vrabie, a Research and Data Analyst at Survation, noted that while older voters are still strongly aligned with either Remain or Leave identities, younger people are considerably less tied to those factions.
“Those too young to vote in 2016 have already had an opportunity to vote in a General Election,” she said. “Though Gen Z adults have the highest proportion of undecided responses, 46% of those surveyed feel much closer or somewhat closer to the Remain side, versus 20% to the Leave side.”
Among Baby Boomers and older voters, 51% feel closer to the Remain side and 41% to Leave – both figures higher in intensity than Gen Z. Vrabie’s conclusion is striking: “It suggests that Brexit, once the defining fault line in British politics, may be loosening its grip on those who grew up in its shadow.” More in Common polling of 18-28 year olds found 81% of likely young voters would vote to rejoin in a head-to-head question – figures consistent with the Survation findings.
The political gap
What is striking about the Survation data is the distance between where public opinion has arrived and where the political conversation currently sits. David Lammy refused five times on Sky News to say whether the UK should rejoin the EU. Andy Burnham has said he wants Britain back in the EU within his lifetime but has pledged not to “re-run” the Brexit arguments. A Question Time audience member made the case for Labour to unite around EU rejoin to considerable applause – the kind of moment politicians privately note but publicly dodge.
Meanwhile the external pressure for closer ties is growing. Michel Barnier said this week that the UK could rejoin on a “short” timeline – that the technical process of re-entry could happen quickly, with the real obstacle being political will rather than logistics. Sir John Major called for single market membership within five years. The civil servant who led Britain’s EU exit called for a public rejoin debate. Zelensky called on the UK to rejoin the EU alongside Ukraine for European security reasons.
The ‘will of the people’
The phrase “will of the people” was used repeatedly by Brexit’s architects to justify the 2016 result and resist any attempt to revisit it. That formulation rested on the 51.9% vote as a settled, permanent expression of what Britain wanted. Survation’s 10,000-person poll – the largest Brexit survey of the post-vote era – now shows the same measure pointing 26 points in the other direction.
If the will of the people was invoked to justify a 3.8-point Leave majority in 2016, the same logic applied to a 26-point Rejoin majority in 2026 would produce a rather different conclusion. Whether any mainstream political party will draw that conclusion explicitly remains the central unanswered question in British politics.
Leave a Reply