Keir Starmer is preparing to announce a timetable for his departure from Downing Street this week, after Andy Burnham’s landslide victory in the Makerfield byelection left the prime minister without the support to continue in office.
Starmer is understood to have reached the conclusion that his position is no longer tenable following conversations in recent days with cabinet ministers, Downing Street advisers, trade union leaders and party donors. He is spending the weekend at Chequers with his wife Victoria before making a final decision, but senior Labour figures believe a “clear statement” could come as early as Monday.
What those close to him are saying
Those who have spoken to Starmer in recent days describe a man who is reflective rather than combative. One Labour peer close to the prime minister insisted he would not “walk away” from No 10 creating a vacuum but would “arrange a deliberate slow march in good order, as a matter of duty and dignity.” The same source said: “I think he sees the realities. Stopping ‘chaos’ (as he rightly put it) is now not possible by staying, so that only leaves one option. I think he has come to see it as the dutiful option to serve the country and the party.”
A second Labour grandee said Starmer now appeared “resigned” to stepping down. “He’s come up hard against the reality that the support isn’t there,” they said. “The truth is everyone knows this is no longer a tenable proposition. There’s a sadness about it all, of course, but sometimes there’s just an inevitability in politics and as Boris Johnson said, ‘When the herd moves it moves’.”
A cabinet minister described the prime minister as “calmly going through things” after a series of highly personal conversations with his closest allies. “He just wants to do what’s right for the country and, having spoken to the people he wants, he is now spending quality time with his most important adviser – Vic,” they said.
One ally was even more direct: “He’s not delusional. This isn’t the prime minister in his bunker. He’s obviously reflecting on the Makerfield result. He’s reflecting on what a leadership contest would mean. He’s not demanding loyalty pledges from anyone.”
Burnham’s numbers
Burnham will be sworn in as an MP on Monday morning and is due to meet Starmer early this week. His supporters claim he has now secured the backing of more than 201 Labour MPs – more than half the Parliamentary Labour Party – to challenge Starmer for the leadership if the prime minister does not step down voluntarily. That number is critical: it means Starmer can no longer tell the King that he commands the confidence of the House of Commons.
Recent polling showed Labour would overtake Reform by eight points under Burnham’s leadership – and the Makerfield result, where Burnham secured 54% of the vote and beat Reform by more than 9,000 votes, has only hardened that view among MPs. “There’s no doubt Andy is very significantly strengthened by the result on Thursday night,” one senior Labour figure said. “The question in MPs’ minds will be – who can stop a Reform government? He’s shown he can do that in Makerfield in a very emphatic manner.”
Lord Falconer, the former cabinet minister, was blunt on the BBC yesterday. Starmer “has absolutely no authority left,” he said, “because everybody assumes Andy Burnham is about to challenge for the leadership – and everybody assumes he’s going to win.”
The cabinet closing in
Starmer is under pressure to make his intentions clear before Tuesday’s cabinet meeting, where ministers are planning to tell him directly that his time is up. Ed Miliband, Shabana Mahmood, Yvette Cooper and transport secretary Heidi Alexander have all urged Starmer to set out a timetable for his departure. Jonathan Reynolds, the chief whip, has conveyed to Starmer the strength of feeling on the Labour benches that there must be an “orderly transition.”
The expectation among Starmer’s supporters is that he will set out a plan to stand down in September, allowing his successor to be formally adopted at Labour Party conference. “There are obviously downsides but we are where we are,” one senior figure said. “Keir has realised the game is up and it’s got to be a graceful exit. What he rightly wants to avoid is humiliation – but the worst humiliation for Keir personally would be if he stands in a leadership election and is heavily beaten.”
Sharon Graham, general secretary of Unite, left little doubt about the union movement’s position. “Obviously Starmer needs to go,” she said. “He needs to reflect on what he said about putting the country before the party. The best thing for Labour is to have an orderly transition and a timetable that is clear.”
The Streeting question
Allies of Wes Streeting, the former health secretary, insisted yesterday that he still intends to stand in any leadership contest. He has taken out a contract on an office for 40 members of staff as his campaign headquarters and received a £50,000 donation from philanthropist Fran Perrin, the daughter of former minister Lord Sainsbury, who also donated £50,000 to his campaign last September.
However, some senior Labour figures believe Streeting will ultimately do a deal with Burnham and step aside in return for a cabinet position. “I think Wes realises the momentum is massively with Andy and has massively gone away from him, and sense will prevail on all sides,” one supporter said. “Of course Wes should be part of the government. He’s a very able guy so that would make a lot of sense from Andy’s point of view. He wants a broad-based administration.”
Downing Street’s position
Officially, Downing Street is not yet conceding anything. A spokesperson said suggestions that Starmer might be about to step down were “just speculation.” On Friday, Starmer told staff the party had to “pull together” and “take the fight” to Reform, and said publicly he would be a candidate in any leadership contest and had “more to do.”
Whether that position survives the week is the question that will dominate Westminster on Monday. One senior Labour source put the arithmetic plainly: “As LBJ said, ‘The first rule of politics is to learn how to count.’ There’s no way that Keir stays beyond the week because Andy has the numbers.”
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