The Labour MP for Makerfield, Josh Simons, has announced he will stand down to trigger a byelection that would give Andy Burnham a route back to parliament and into the Labour leadership race – as Burnham confirmed he would be asking the party’s National Executive Committee to allow him to stand, cabinet ministers said they would not block him, Nigel Farage vowed Reform would “throw absolutely everything” at the contest and the political situation around Keir Starmer continued to deteriorate by the hour.
The development is the most significant single moment in the Labour leadership crisis since Wes Streeting’s cabinet resignation, as we reported in our full coverage of Streeting’s ferocious attack on Starmer. It gives the most popular candidate in the race – with 42% of Labour member first preferences and a 72% net favourability rating – a concrete and immediate path to the contest that the NEC previously denied him twice.
What Josh Simons said
Simons, who holds Makerfield with a majority of just over 5,000, announced his decision in a letter to constituents. The language was explicit in its political purpose.
“I do not believe this government is delivering the urgent, radical, brave reform we need. We need a new direction. I believe that Andy Burnham can provide it.”
“I could not stand here and tell you that our politics is broken and things need to change, then stand in the way of supporting that change. That means stepping aside as your MP for Makerfield to make way for a leader who has the radicalism, energy and immense courage to meet the moment.”
“Someone who has the track record of delivering for working people, building alliances and using the talents of colleagues from every part of the party. That is Andy.”
Simons is known as a close ally of Streeting within the parliamentary party – making his decision to step aside for Burnham a significant signal that the divisions within the anti-Starmer coalition are resolving around Burnham rather than deepening.
What Burnham said
Burnham confirmed Thursday he would be asking the NEC to allow him to stand in the Makerfield contest. His statement framed the move in terms of cost of living and delivering at national scale what he has delivered in Greater Manchester.
“Much bigger change is needed at a national level,” he said. “This is why I now seek people’s support to return to parliament: to bring the change we have brought to Greater Manchester to the whole of the UK and make politics work properly for people.”
The statement was carefully calibrated to be about national purpose rather than internal party politics – presenting Burnham as a candidate running on a programme rather than a faction.
The NEC position – no longer a barrier
As we reported in our leadership crisis coverage, the NEC has blocked Burnham from standing in byelections twice – most recently at the Gorton and Denton contest in January. The stated rationale was that allowing him to stand risked a Greater Manchester mayoral byelection the party could not afford to lose.
That position has now effectively collapsed. Multiple members of the NEC’s ten-person officers group have confirmed they will give Burnham the green light this time. Senior Labour figures including cabinet ministers told the Guardian they do not expect the NEC to stand in his way. Sources close to Starmer acknowledged the Prime Minister would no longer be in a position to block Burnham’s return without triggering open fury from MPs across the party.
As we reported in our Rayner Sunday statement piece, Rayner publicly called the blocking of Burnham a mistake. Streeting’s resignation letter explicitly said any contest “needs to be broad, and it needs the best possible field of candidates.” Joe Morris, a Streeting ally, said: “The prime minister must not stand in the way of Andy’s candidacy.” One senior Burnham backer summarised: “If you’ve got people from Angela to Wes saying it, then the whole party is now in the same place on this. Andy needs to be given a shot.”
The Makerfield byelection – and why it is not straightforward
The byelection itself will be one of the most watched contests in years. Farage wasted no time in signalling Reform’s intent: “We will throw absolutely everything at this contest.”
The numbers make clear why. In the 2024 mayoral race, Burnham won across Greater Manchester with 62% of the vote – an extraordinary personal mandate that his supporters will deploy as evidence of his crossover appeal. But at last week’s local elections, Reform won 50.4% of the vote across the eight wards in Makerfield that were contested, with Labour trailing on just 22.7%.
Those two data points tell contradictory stories. Burnham’s personal pull is demonstrably different from Labour’s current brand appeal in the same geography. Whether a byelection fought on a Burnham leadership platform can replicate his mayoral numbers rather than Labour’s local election numbers is the specific question that will be answered in Makerfield.
Farage understands this perfectly. A Reform win in Makerfield would simultaneously block Burnham’s leadership path and deliver the single greatest blow to Labour’s political authority since the elections last week. A Burnham win would give him the parliamentary seat he needs, the mandate argument he has sought and the launch pad for the most anticipated Labour leadership campaign in a generation.
What three cabinet ministers told the Guardian
Three serving cabinet ministers privately told the Guardian that they believe Starmer will be forced to oversee a smooth transition of power to Burnham. None went public. But the three separate assessments – from figures who remain in government and therefore have institutional reasons to maintain loyalty – represent the most serious signal yet that the cabinet’s position has shifted from protecting Starmer to managing his departure.
As we reported in our 70+ Labour MPs piece, the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood led four cabinet ministers into Downing Street to tell Starmer directly that he must set a timetable for his departure. That intervention, combined with Streeting’s resignation and now three cabinet ministers’ private assessments, paints a picture of a cabinet that has largely concluded the Starmer era is ending and is beginning to position for what comes next.
The field as it now stands
With Burnham’s path to parliament now open, the leadership field has crystallised considerably.
Andy Burnham – has a byelection route, NEC backing appears secured, has support from Rayner, Miliband and effectively from Streeting. The most popular candidate with members. Faces a serious byelection contest against a Reform party that will give it everything.
Wes Streeting – has resigned from cabinet, has 81 MPs, has not yet formally declared his candidacy. His decision on whether to run after signalling support for a broad field including Burnham will define his leadership ambitions.
Ed Miliband – as we reported in our Miliband soundings piece, he was “definitely organising” as a stop-Streeting soft-left candidate. Whether Burnham’s entry changes his position is the immediate question.
Angela Rayner – cleared by HMRC and free to run. Has backed Burnham. Is understood to be “no longer determined” to go for the top job but would run if needed.
Keir Starmer – has told allies he will fight any contest. His authority continues to erode by the hour.
What happens next
The Makerfield byelection date has not been announced. The formal mechanism – Simons applying to the Speaker for the Chiltern Hundreds – will be triggered in due course. NEC approval for Burnham’s candidacy is expected imminently.
As we detailed in our Labour rules explainer, Burnham cannot formally enter a leadership contest without a parliamentary seat. He cannot get that seat without winning the byelection. The byelection cannot happen until Simons formally stands down. But the trajectory is now clear in a way it was not 48 hours ago.
Farage will throw everything at Makerfield. Labour’s future may depend on the result.
