Andy Burnham is the only major Westminster leader with a positive approval rating in the latest Opinium poll, giving him a commanding personal lead over every rival.
The survey puts his net approval at +16, 37% approve of his performance, 21% disapprove. Every other leader tested is negative: Ed Davey -4, Kemi Badenoch -5, Zack Polanski -23, Nigel Farage -25. That’s Burnham 20 points ahead of Davey, 21 clear of Badenoch, and 41 ahead of Farage. Opinium surveyed 2,050 UK adults between 5 and 8 August, weighted to be nationally and politically representative.
The rating’s held steady over his second fortnight
Burnham also scored +16 in Opinium’s previous survey at the end of July. Holding that number matters, several rivals have actually dropped over the same period. Davey’s gone from +1 to -4, Badenoch from +1 to -5, Polanski from -20 to -23, Farage from -24 to -25.
Some of Burnham’s initial rise was inevitably down to the attention around a new PM taking over, he replaced Starmer after winning both the Makerfield byelection and the Labour leadership. The fact his score hasn’t collapsed once the first wave of announcements and TV appearances passed is the more interesting part. It’s also a big jump from where he stood before becoming PM, an Opinium poll in May had him at -3, though even that beat Starmer’s -43 at the time.
Labour’s narrow lead over Reform
Burnham’s personal numbers have come with a recovery in Labour’s voting-intention figures too. The same Opinium poll puts Labour on 27%, narrowly ahead of Reform on 25%. The Conservatives are third on 19%, the Greens 12%, the Lib Dems 10%.
That’s a small lead, well within normal polling variation. It’s still a sharp shift from where things stood before Burnham took over, when Reform had led most national polls for over a year. A recent Lord Ashcroft survey actually put Reform in third, behind both Labour and the Conservatives, while other pollsters have Labour and Reform much closer. The common thread across all of them: Labour’s regained ground since changing leader, and Reform’s once-consistent national lead has disappeared.
Farage’s own personal ratings have fallen at the same pace, More in Common recently recorded his lowest approval since the 2024 election, down to -32.
The public’s still doubtful on cost of living
None of this means voters think Burnham’s government will actually improve their lives. Opinium found 40% expect the cost of living to get worse under the new government against just 23% expecting improvement. On irregular immigration, 37% expect it to worsen, 19% expect it to improve.
That’s clearly shaping how Burnham’s spending August, touring the country talking about household costs, high streets and public services. His government’s already scrapped VAT on household electricity and restored the £2 bus fare cap. Next up: misleading discounts and hard-to-cancel subscriptions. Under the plans, companies will have to give clearer information before subscriptions renew and make cancelling easier, due to take effect January 2027. He’s also announced action against retailers who hike prices before advertising discounts, letting them present ordinary prices as special offers.
Modest consumer reforms next to the bigger pressures from rent, mortgages, food and energy. The political purpose is straightforward, though: Burnham wants his government associated with changes people actually notice day to day.
Approval isn’t the same as votes
Leader approval and voting intention measure different things. Someone can approve of Burnham without planning to vote Labour, and a dissatisfied Reform voter might still back Farage anyway once they look at the alternatives.
Burnham’s also still getting the honeymoon leeway most new PMs get. The harder test comes once Parliament’s back and his government has to defend actual spending decisions, tax policy and its immigration record. For now, though, the contrast is stark: Burnham’s above zero, Labour’s competitive again, and every other leader Opinium tested is viewed negatively overall. Farage remains Burnham’s closest electoral challenger in this poll, and also the least popular of the five leaders tested. Labour’s lead over Reform is two points. Burnham’s lead over Farage is 41.
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