Net migration to the UK fell by 48% to 171,100 in 2025 – the lowest figure since 2012, comparable with pre-Covid levels and more than 80% lower than the record 944,000 posted in the year to March 2023. The asylum seeker hotel population fell by a third. Asylum claims fell by 12%. Robert Jenrick, who was the Minister of State for Immigration when that 944,000 record was set and who once boasted on Sky News that he had personally “procured even more migrant hotels” than any of his predecessors, responded by complaining that too many Brits are leaving.
The word “doublespeak” trended on X within hours.
The numbers
The Office for National Statistics published the 2025 migration figures on Thursday. Net migration – the difference between people arriving in the UK and people leaving – fell from 331,000 in 2024 to 171,100 in 2025. That is a drop of 48% in a single year.
To contextualise that figure: the 171,100 is lower than pre-pandemic net migration. It is the lowest figure recorded since 2012. It is 82% lower than the peak of 944,000 in the year to March 2023.
The asylum hotel figures moved in the same direction. The number of asylum seekers being housed in temporary hotel accommodation fell by a third from its peak. Asylum claims in the year to March fell by 12%. On every metric by which the anti-immigration movement had been measuring government failure, the numbers have moved substantially in the direction it had been demanding.
What Jenrick said
Jenrick’s response to the figures was posted on X on Thursday morning. “246,000 Brits left last year,” he wrote. “Net, 136,000 went. A city the size of Watford. Many are entrepreneurs, investors, small businesspeople. It’s the Starmer Exodus. Reform will Bring Brits Back.”
The pivot from complaining about people arriving to complaining about people leaving – published within hours of figures showing immigration at its lowest point in over a decade – was, as @thelefttake put it, the cleanest possible summary of a certain type of political commentary: “Net migration up, complain. Net migration down, complain. What’s the point?”
The “Starmer Exodus” framing – which implies that the UK has become so unpleasant under Labour that entrepreneurs and businesspeople are fleeing – required Jenrick to simultaneously argue that the UK’s reduced attractiveness to immigrants is a success and that its reduced attractiveness to emigrants is a crisis. Both things cannot be caused by the same Labour government without the logic becoming circular.
What his critics said
The responses to Jenrick’s post were swift, specific and documented.
Jonathan Brash, Labour MP, addressed Jenrick directly: “Hi @RobertJenrick when you were the Minister of State for Immigration 532,000 emigrated from the UK. How many Watfords was that?” The post received 6,500 likes.
@floboflo captured the data in a single sentence: “That’s one way of spinning the fact that immigration is 82% lower now than when Jenrick was immigration minister.” 3,200 likes.
Aaron Bastani put the logical contradiction plainly: “So immigration isn’t the issue any more, it’s that people leave?” 1,200 likes.
Hayden Wright made the arithmetic explicit: “Behave. It was almost ONE MILLION when you were in power. I thought you wanted the numbers to go down? Now they are going down (massively) that’s still somehow Sir Keir’s fault? Your doublespeak has no bounds.”
The record Jenrick is defending
The specific context that Jenrick’s critics are supplying is his own record as Immigration Minister. He served in the role when net migration hit 944,000 – a figure that at the time was described by the Conservative government as a crisis requiring urgent action. The crisis required action. The urgent action was taken. The figures are now 82% lower. The Immigration Minister during the crisis period is now complaining that the figures are insufficient.
There is a more specific embarrassment in Jenrick’s record. In footage from Sky News, he was caught having described his own procurement of asylum seeker hotels approvingly: he had personally “procured even more migrant hotels” than any of his predecessors, which he presented at the time as evidence of decisive action. When he subsequently joined a protest against asylum hotels in August 2025, the footage was retrieved and redistributed widely.
Even Nigel Farage, who later welcomed Jenrick’s defection to Reform with apparent warmth, had previously called him a “fraud.” As we reported in our Jenrick Commons laughter piece, the man who attacked Labour for broken promises was this week laughed at by the entire chamber when a Lib Dem MP pointed out he used to sit with the Conservatives.
What the emigration figures actually show
Jenrick’s underlying data point – that 246,000 British citizens left the UK in 2025, with a net outflow of 136,000 – is real. British emigration is a genuine trend worth examining. The specific question of why British citizens leave – cost of living, career opportunities, climate, lifestyle preferences – is a legitimate policy conversation.
The specific argument that a net outflow of 136,000 Brits is the “Starmer Exodus” driven by government failure is considerably harder to sustain when ONS data shows that British emigration has been a consistent feature of the UK’s demographic picture for decades, under governments of both parties, and that the 2025 figure sits within the normal historical range rather than representing a specific spike caused by the current government.
The pivot from “too many people coming” to “too many people going” as the primary immigration complaint, executed in real time on the same day that the “too many people coming” numbers fell to their lowest point in over a decade, is the kind of rhetorical move that generates 1,600 replies for good reason.
