Nigel Farage has rarely been shy about his admiration for Donald Trump. Over the years, he has praised the former US president’s resilience, style of politics, and willingness to confront opponents head-on. That closeness helped define Farage’s brand long before Reform UK started competing seriously for power in Britain.
But as Trump dominates headlines again – and as anxieties rise in the UK about American volatility, diplomacy, and the direction of US domestic policy – Farage’s relationship with Trump is also becoming a potential liability. Pollsters and political analysts say the association risks turning off voters who might otherwise be open to Reform, particularly among groups that are sceptical of Trump’s brand of politics.
The question for Reform is whether Farage can keep the benefits of being seen as an insurgent challenger, while avoiding the electoral downsides of being framed as “Britain’s Trump”.
Farage’s Trump connection is long-standing
Farage has repeatedly portrayed Trump as a fighter, and has been happy to be photographed with him in ways that signal proximity and access. In one widely circulated remark at a Trump rally in 2020, Farage described Trump as the “most resilient and brave person” he had ever met.
In another clip that has resurfaced repeatedly online, Farage said of Trump: “The guy has got guts, the guy’s got balls – he stands up and fights for the right values.”
Those lines speak to the political pitch Farage has used for years: a promise to challenge establishment politics, disrupt “managed decline”, and take positions that more conventional parties are reluctant to adopt. Reform’s rise in national polling has made that pitch more consequential, because it is no longer just protest politics. It is increasingly discussed as a serious attempt to win power.
Why Trump is unpopular in the UK – and why it matters for Reform
Trump’s standing with British voters has often been weak compared with his base support in the US, and his persona tends to be polarising in the UK’s political culture. Analysts argue that makes any “British Trump” framing especially risky in a general election environment, where parties need to build wider coalitions rather than energise a narrower base.
More in Common, which runs regular polling and qualitative research, has warned that the political environment is highly fragmented and volatile, with support shifting between Labour, the Conservatives, Reform and smaller parties in ways that can quickly change the national picture.
In that context, the problem for Reform is straightforward: Farage can be a draw for voters who want disruption, but Trump may be a repellent for voters who want change without chaos. That dynamic may be particularly sharp when voters are thinking about competence, stability and the prospect of a party entering government.
A separate warning sign for Reform is that recent polling has suggested its lead, while still significant, can move. A Focaldata voting intention poll published on 21 January 2026 put Reform at 26% (down three points on its previous poll), with Labour on 21% and the Conservatives on 20%.
That is not evidence of a collapse. But it does underline that Reform’s support is not fixed – and that reputational hits, framing battles, and major news events can shift sentiment.
Focus groups suggest Trump is a complication for Farage
Polling numbers only tell part of the story. Focus groups and voter interviews often show what people feel before it becomes fully visible in headline voting intention.
A Guardian report on More in Common’s focus group work has suggested that Farage’s links to Trump are viewed negatively by some voters who are otherwise open to Reform, particularly because Trump’s style is seen as disruptive and unpredictable.
That matters because Reform’s route to power depends on persuading voters who are not committed ideologues – the people who might vote Reform to punish other parties, or because they feel ignored, or because they want a tougher line on certain issues. If Trump becomes central to how those voters see Farage, Reform could struggle to expand beyond a coalition of anger and protest.
Farage’s challenge, then, is not simply defending the Trump friendship. It is preventing the UK debate from becoming a referendum on Trump-style politics.
The by-election test: Gorton and Denton becomes a national battleground
The next major test of these dynamics arrives quickly: the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February 2026.
Although by-elections are not general elections, they can shape narratives: momentum, credibility, media attention, and the sense of who is “rising” or “falling”. They can also encourage tactical voting if one party is perceived as best-placed to stop another.
Labour is already trying to frame the contest as a straight fight with Reform. Reform, in turn, will want to show that it can win in a diverse, urban seat – the kind of result that would make it harder to dismiss the party as limited to specific regions or demographics.
The campaign has also attracted controversy. The Guardian reported that Reform’s candidate drew condemnation after receiving a public endorsement from the far-right activist Tommy Robinson, which Reform said was unwelcome.
For Reform, this kind of episode is politically dangerous because it can reinforce a negative brand association – not just with Trump-style politics, but with broader concerns about division, extremism and social cohesion. Even if the party distances itself, the story can linger and shape how undecided voters interpret what Reform represents.
What this means for Farage, Starmer, and the next election
For Farage, the “Trump penalty” risk is that his most recognisable political relationship becomes a shorthand for instability. That can be survivable for a party playing insurgent, but it becomes more damaging if voters start picturing Reform in government.
For Keir Starmer, Trump’s unpopularity can also be politically useful – but only if Labour can persuade voters that it offers competence and delivery, not just opposition to Reform. A fragmented electorate means Labour cannot rely on one argument alone. It needs a positive case that stands independently of Farage.
The broader reality is that British politics is now more fluid than it has been in decades. Smaller parties can surge, major parties can stumble, and narratives can move quickly. In that environment, personalities and international events can matter more than they used to – especially when they become symbols of something voters fear.
Farage built part of his appeal on being close to Trump. If Trump continues to dominate global headlines in ways British voters dislike, that closeness could also become one of the sharpest lines of attack against Reform – and one of the hardest for Farage to neutralise.
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