Reform UK has fallen into third place in the latest More in Common poll, putting Nigel Farage’s party behind the Conservatives for the first time in 18 months.
Labour remains in front on 26 per cent despite losing one point. The Conservatives have climbed one point to 23 per cent, narrowly overtaking Reform, which has slipped to 22 per cent.
The Liberal Democrats are up one point to 11 per cent, while the Greens remain unchanged on 9 per cent.
Restore Britain, the party established by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, is on 4 per cent. The SNP records 3 per cent across Britain, with other parties taking the remaining 1 per cent.
More in Common surveyed 3,250 adults between 28 and 31 August. The changes are measured against its previous poll, conducted a week earlier.
Its UK director Luke Tryl announced the result on X:
“Back to school voting intention. Tories edge into second as Labour leads by 3.”
Obviously these are margin of error changes, and we should expect things to fluctuate over conference season. But this is the highest Conservative vote share since January of this year, and Reform’s lowest in 18 months (though we have only been prompting Restore for 2 weeks which… pic.twitter.com/mLSJVLYfVL
The gap between the Conservatives and Reform is only one point, so it would be unwise to claim that the balance of power on the right has decisively changed. Polls have a margin of error and other companies may produce different results.
Even so, the direction of travel will concern Reform. Its 22 per cent showing is the party’s lowest result in a More in Common poll since January 2025.
Reform’s decline has not produced a Labour surge
There is an important detail in the figures: Labour has not gained any support since the previous poll.
The governing party is down one point, but its lead has grown because Reform has also fallen while the Conservatives have moved up.
It suggests some movement may be taking place within the right rather than directly from Reform to Labour. Conservative support has risen to 23 per cent, while Restore Britain remains on 4 per cent after being added to More in Common’s voting-intention question in August.
The previous More in Common poll put Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 22 per cent. Restore was again on 4 per cent.
Reform has therefore fallen by three points across two surveys, while the Conservatives have gained one. That has been enough to reverse their positions.
Restore’s presence gives Reform another problem. Lowe is attempting to attract voters who believe Farage’s party has compromised or failed to take a sufficiently hard line on immigration.
It would be misleading simply to add Reform and Restore’s figures together. Not every Restore voter would necessarily support Reform if Lowe’s party disappeared from the ballot, and some might vote Conservative or stay at home.
Nevertheless, a rival taking 4 per cent on Reform’s right makes Farage’s route to first place more difficult. In a crowded electoral field, losing even a small part of his coalition could be costly.
The poll was released as Farage returned to the Commons after winning the Clacton by-election he triggered by resigning his seat.
Farage defeated Count Binface with 22,239 votes, equivalent to 62.8 per cent. Binface finished second on 9,455 votes after Labour, the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens chose not to stand.
Farage’s victory restored him as an MP, but it also restarted the parliamentary standards investigation into the £5 million he received from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne before the 2024 general election.
Farage maintains that it was a private gift received before he entered Parliament and that he was not required to register it. The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards is examining whether the payment should have been declared after he became an MP.
A serious suspension could lead to a recall petition, although another by-election would only be triggered if at least 10 per cent of registered Clacton voters signed it.
The case has become a persistent political problem for Reform. Farage has offered different explanations for the payment, including that it helped cover the cost of personal security and that it was a reward for his contribution to Brexit.
Reform has also been dealing with internal disagreements. Tom Montgomerie was suspended from his senior party role after publicly criticising Farage and Reform’s head of policy, Zia Yusuf.
The party is due to hold its annual conference in Birmingham later this week. Instead of arriving as the undisputed leader of the right, Farage will now face questions about why Reform has dropped behind a Conservative Party it had hoped to replace.
A Conservative source seized on the result, saying Reform was “going backwards” and accusing Farage of offering no convincing answer to the questions surrounding the £5 million.
Reform can reasonably point out that this is one poll and that a single percentage point separates the two parties. The latest wider polling average still places Reform ahead of the Conservatives.
But More in Common’s series shows a clear change from the position at the beginning of the year. Its January MRP had Reform on 31 per cent and projected the party could win 381 seats if an election were held under those conditions.
That was always a snapshot rather than a prediction. Eight months later, Reform is on 22 per cent in the same pollster’s latest national survey.
Labour’s change of leader has helped alter the political landscape. Andy Burnham is more popular than his predecessor and Labour has recovered from the depths it reached during Keir Starmer’s final months in office.
The Conservatives are showing signs of life too. More in Common now has them only three points behind Labour and one point ahead of Reform.
Farage’s party remains a major electoral force, and nobody can draw a general-election result from one poll taken years before voters are due to go to the ballot box.
For the first time in a year and a half, however, the Conservatives can point to a More in Common poll and say they are ahead of Reform.
That is not where Farage expected to be as he prepared for his party conference.
Joe Connor is a UK-based reporter specialising in politics, public policy, and national affairs. He has previously contributed to publications including The London Economic (JOE Media Group) and Spotted News.
At The Daily Britain, he covers Westminster politics, elections, and breaking political developments, alongside in-depth analysis of policy decisions and their real-world impact.
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