Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman, two of Reform’s most high-profile Conservative defectors, are currently projected to lose their seats to Tory candidates at the next election.
Both entered Parliament as Conservatives before switching to Reform earlier this year. According to constituency estimates from @PollingReportUK, neither would hold their seat if current figures were replicated at an election. The Conservatives lead comfortably in Jenrick’s Newark. Braverman’s Fareham and Waterlooville is much tighter.
These are modelled estimates, not constituency polls, and the next election isn’t due until 2029. Candidate selection, local campaigning and shifts in national support could all move the numbers substantially before then. Even with that caveat, the projections raise an awkward possibility for Reform: two of its biggest recruits could end up losing their seats to the very party they abandoned.
Jenrick trails by more than 12 points
The worse projection is Newark, where Jenrick has been MP since 2014. @PollingReportUK has the Conservatives on 37.9%, Jenrick and Reform on 25.6%, Labour close behind on 21.2%, the Greens on 9.6%, the Lib Dems on 4.2%. That’s a projected Conservative lead of 12.25 points.
At the 2024 election, Jenrick won Newark as a Tory with 20,968 votes, 39.2%. Labour came second on 32.5%, Reform took 15.5%. The new projection has the Conservatives sitting close to Jenrick’s old vote share despite his departure. Reform’s support has grown substantially since 2024, just not enough to overtake his former party.
Jenrick’s move to Reform was genuinely acrimonious. Kemi Badenoch removed him from the shadow cabinet and suspended his whip after saying she’d received “clear, irrefutable evidence” he was secretly planning to defect. He joined Reform anyway and was handed a senior economic role, becoming arguably the party’s second most prominent figure after Farage. That role has kept him firmly in the news since, including repeatedly declining to answer questions on George Cottrell’s finances at a press conference this week. The projection suggests he could end up squeezed between a recovering Conservative vote and Labour support that hasn’t gone anywhere. 25.6% in a fragmented field could easily land him third rather than first.
Braverman’s race is much closer
Braverman’s in better shape, though the model still has her losing. @PollingReportUK gives the Tories 32.2% against her 28.7%, a 3.48-point Conservative lead. The Lib Dems sit on 17.9%, Labour 11.8%, the Greens 9.5%. A margin that thin could easily shift as polling, candidates and campaigns change, but it’s still far from safe.
Braverman won the seat for the Conservatives in 2024 with 17,561 votes, 35%. Labour came second on 22.9%, the Lib Dems 19%, Reform 18.1%. Her majority was 6,079. She defected to Reform in January, calling it “coming home,” giving Farage another former cabinet minister and one of Westminster’s most recognisable voices on immigration and the ECHR. She’s since argued MPs who switch parties should have to face byelections, while declining to trigger one herself.
The model suggests plenty of voters who backed her as a Conservative would stay Conservative rather than automatically follow her to Reform. Unlike Jenrick, though, she’s still within striking distance of first.
What this projection is, and isn’t
Neither seat has actually been polled for this. @PollingReportUK builds these estimates from national polling, uniform swing, incumbency weighting, minimum vote-share assumptions and individual seat adjustments, and its own methodology page explicitly warns the numbers are for information, not definitive forecasts.
It’s also assuming candidates and conditions that could look very different by 2029. The Conservatives haven’t selected who’d actually run against Jenrick or Braverman, and tactical voting could shift both races further. National polling itself is split right now, More in Common recently put Labour four points ahead of Reform, while the latest YouGov has Reform narrowly ahead, 23% to 22%. Reform’s once-commanding lead has clearly weakened. That’s not the same as its support disappearing.
The risk that comes with defecting
Reform got experienced politicians, national name recognition, and extra Commons seats out of recruiting Jenrick and Braverman. What it didn’t automatically get was permanent ownership of the Conservative votes that originally elected them.
A general election puts a party label next to every name on the ballot. Voters who backed Jenrick or Braverman as Conservatives in 2024 might not treat a vote for them now as interchangeable with a vote for Reform. That’s the actual warning in these numbers. Braverman has a plausible path to keeping her seat, even if the race is close. Jenrick’s position looks considerably rougher, trailing his old party by over 12 points.
There’s nearly three years left for any of this to change. Right now, though, two defections meant to show off Reform’s growing strength could end with the Conservatives simply taking both seats back.
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