Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain could nearly halve the number of MPs won by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at the next election, according to modelling reported by The Sunday Times.
Stonehaven’s September forecast put Reform on 108 seats and Labour on 281. When researchers offered Restore as a named voting option and modelled it standing in every constituency, Reform fell to 59 seats and Labour rose to 316.
Restore was projected to win no seats of its own. It would, under that scenario, cost Reform 49 MPs while putting Labour ten seats short of an outright majority.
The comparison needs one qualification: the original forecast did pick up some Restore support. The party was not listed as a voting option, but around two per cent of respondents wrote it in. When it appeared by name, its support rose to about five per cent. The seat totals compare those two approaches, rather than a ballot with no Restore voters against one with Restore on it.
A small vote share, a large seat change
Public First conducted and funded the polling, which was analysed by its parent company Stonehaven. The model draws on responses from 137,000 people surveyed since July 2024, including 14,000 since Andy Burnham became prime minister. Its latest update included 3,766 respondents surveyed between 28 August and 8 September. More recent responses were given greater weight.
The figures are estimates of what might happen if an election were held on those conditions. Restore has yet to select candidates across the country, and a national model cannot settle every local contest. Lowe, for example, is already the MP for Great Yarmouth, despite Restore being projected to win no seats in this scenario.
Still, the size of Reform’s projected loss will concern Farage. In a close constituency race, Restore does not need to finish first to change the winner. It needs enough voters who might otherwise have backed Reform to put another party ahead.
That possibility was raised during June’s Makerfield by-election. Restore won about seven per cent, Reform took 35 per cent and Labour’s Andy Burnham won with 54 per cent. Adding the Reform and Restore votes there would still leave them well behind Labour. The result did, however, establish that Lowe’s party could attract a measurable vote in a contest Reform hoped to win. The Daily Britain reported on the result at the time.
Restore then took 8.7 per cent of first-preference votes in the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, finishing ahead of the Conservatives. That prompted Lowe to offer Reform an electoral pact. Farage stopped short of accepting it.
Could Farage win those voters back?
Lowe was elected as a Reform MP in 2024 before falling out with the party. Restore Britain has since tried to attract voters who want a harder line than Farage’s on immigration and other issues.
That shared ground does not mean its supporters would automatically switch to Reform if Lowe stood aside. In a separate YouGov study of Restore supporters, only 36 per cent said they would consider voting for Reform at a future election. Two-thirds viewed Farage unfavourably.
Farage has appealed to Restore voters to think again. But the two leaders have not agreed a pact, and The Sunday Times reported that recent suggestions of a deal were short-lived. Farage has left open the possibility of talks while setting conditions for them.
For Labour, the model offers a striking illustration of how a divided opposition could help it retain power. A projected 316 seats would still fall short of a majority, and Burnham could not plan a government around Lowe standing candidates everywhere.
For Reform, the warning is more immediate. The party’s September projection gives it 108 MPs. A rival polling at about five per cent in the model cuts that to 59, even though the rival wins nothing itself.
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