Widespread tactical voting could push Reform UK from official opposition into fourth place at the next general election, according to new constituency-level polling.
The research found that Reform could win 153 seats if voters supported their current preferred party. But that figure falls to just 62 when people who are willing to vote tactically switch to whichever local candidate is best placed to defeat Nigel Farage’s party.
Labour would rise from 272 seats to 319 under the same scenario, leaving Andy Burnham six seats short of an overall majority.
The findings suggest Reform’s greatest electoral threat may not be a collapse in its national support. Its vote share could actually increase while the party loses around 90 seats because opponents unite behind Labour, Conservative or Liberal Democrat candidates at constituency level.
Reform falls from 153 seats to 62
The polling was conducted by Survation and the progressive campaign group 38 Degrees.
More than 8,000 voters took part, allowing researchers to produce a seat-by-seat MRP model.
The baseline projection puts Labour on 272 seats with 28% of the vote, four points ahead nationally.
Reform would win 153 seats and become the official opposition, while the Conservatives would be reduced to 85.
The election would be decided across an unusually large number of marginal constituencies. Around 200 seats are projected to be separated by fewer than five percentage points, meaning relatively small movements between parties could transform the result.
Survation found that four in ten voters currently support a party that is not expected to finish among the top two in their constituency and say they would consider voting tactically.
Around half of those voters said they would lend their vote to the stronger local challenger if the contest became a two-way race.
That creates what Survation chief executive Damian Lyons Lowe described as an untapped group equivalent to around 18% of the national electorate.
Under the model’s higher tactical-voting scenario, Reform loses 91 of the seats it was previously expected to win.
Forty-six would move to the Conservatives and 43 to Labour.
“Reform doesn’t collapse; it risks being outnumbered, seat by seat,” Lyons Lowe said.
Reform could gain votes and still lose seats
The findings expose one of the stranger consequences of Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
A party’s national vote can increase while its number of MPs falls if opposition votes become more efficiently concentrated in individual constituencies.
Bassetlaw provides one of the clearest examples.
Under the baseline projection, Reform has a 77% chance of winning the seat, with an estimated vote share of 35% against Labour’s 32%.
In the tactical-voting scenario, Reform’s support rises to 40%. But Labour also reaches 40% after attracting voters who would otherwise have supported the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats or Greens.
The probability then shifts to a 58% chance of a Labour victory.
In Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, currently held by Chancellor John Healey, Reform has a 51% chance of victory under the standard assumptions.
Once tactical voting is included, Labour’s chance of holding the constituency rises to 76%.
The Conservatives would benefit in other areas.
Reform is initially favoured in the Wrekin, Torridge and Tavistock, and North West Cambridgeshire. All three are projected to move to the Conservatives if anti-Reform voters rally behind the Tory candidate.
Newark, represented by Conservative defector Robert Jenrick, is already forecast to return to the Conservatives. Tactical support from Labour voters increases the probability of a Conservative victory from 68% to more than 99%.
That would require some Labour supporters to vote Conservative specifically to remove a Reform MP. Whether large numbers would actually do that remains uncertain.
Burnham is winning voters back from the left
The polling also suggests Andy Burnham is rebuilding Labour’s support among voters who had moved to the Greens, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru.
Twice as many voters have returned to Labour from parties on its left or centre-left since April as have returned from Reform or the Conservatives.
Among Labour’s lost 2024 voters, the proportion now supporting the Greens, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru or SNP has fallen from 60% to 46%.
The equivalent figure for those who moved to Reform or the Conservatives has barely changed, falling from 27% to 24%.
That matters because Labour has repeatedly faced arguments over whether it should concentrate on winning Reform supporters or rebuild the broader progressive coalition that delivered its 2024 victory.
This poll points firmly towards the second strategy.
It follows recent YouGov polling that placed Reform level with the Conservatives and at its lowest score since early 2025. Separate Ipsos research found that 58% of Britons now describe Reform as an “extreme” party.
Farage also faces competition on his own side. Modelling published earlier this month suggested Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain could cut Reform’s projected representation from 108 MPs to 59 by dividing the right-wing vote.
One projection shows Reform being damaged by a rival on the right. The latest shows it being squeezed by tactical cooperation across the centre and left.
Together, they demonstrate how vulnerable the party could become in hundreds of local contests, even if its national polling remains strong.
This is a warning, not an election result
The 62-seat figure should not be treated as a firm prediction.
Voters frequently say they are prepared to vote tactically without ultimately doing so. They must also know which candidate is best placed to defeat the party they oppose, something that may remain unclear in constituencies with three or four competitive parties.
There are political limits too. A Labour voter may support a Liberal Democrat to stop Reform, but could be considerably less willing to vote Conservative.
Progressive voters in Labour-held constituencies may also reject campaign material telling them the Conservatives have become the stronger anti-Reform option.
But the scale of the movement in Survation’s model cannot be dismissed.
Reform goes from 153 MPs and official opposition to 62 MPs and fourth place, not because its supporters disappear, but because its opponents become more organised.
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