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Labour is facing the prospect of losing between 1,000 and 2,000 council seats in the May 7 local elections, according to two of Britain’s most respected election analysts – a potential wipeout that would represent the most damaging local election verdict for any governing party in modern British political history.
The warning comes from Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, honorary professors at the University of Exeter and associate members of Nuffield College, Oxford, who have spent decades analysing British local election results and whose assessments are regarded as authoritative by politicians across the spectrum. Writing in the Local Government Chronicle, they set out in stark terms just how exposed Labour is – and why the numbers could be even worse than the headline figure suggests.
The scale of what Labour is defending
The starting point for understanding the scale of the problem is the position Labour finds itself defending. Labour is defending more than half of the 5,013 seats falling vacant across 136 councils on May 7, reflecting the party’s particular dominance in London and the metropolitan boroughs where it currently controls no fewer than 44 of the 64 councils with elections.
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That concentration of control – built up during years of Conservative unpopularity – is now Labour’s greatest vulnerability. The very strength that gives the party so much to defend is the same strength that could produce catastrophic seat losses if the national mood continues to move against it.
And the national mood has moved sharply against it. Since last May, Labour has retained just a quarter of the seats it has been defending in local by-elections – suffering an average decline of 25% in vote share. Rallings and Thrasher’s conclusion is direct: “A repeat of last year and Labour could be well over 1,000 councillors down. A hit of that magnitude would see the party’s losses edging closer to 2,000.”
What happened last year – and why 2026 could be worse
To understand the magnitude of what is being forecast, it helps to look at what happened in 2025. Labour won just 98 seats – 6% of the total – in last year’s local elections, down from 28% of seats in the equivalent 2021 contests. It was the lowest proportion of seats Labour had won in over 20 years.
Last year’s contests, however, were a truncated set of mainly county council elections. The 2026 round is far larger in scope, covering all 32 London boroughs, 32 metropolitan boroughs, and dozens of unitary and district councils. Most of the seats up for grabs in 2026 were last contested in 2022, when Labour was polling around 35%. The party now polls around 20%. That 15-point collapse in support since those seats were last fought is the fundamental driver of the projected losses.
In 2025, both Labour and the Conservatives posted their lowest vote shares for 40 years, with Reform coming first nationally at an estimated 32% – the best ever performance by a third party and ten points higher than UKIP achieved at its peak in 2013.
Reform gains described as “inevitable”
Rallings and Thrasher are equally clear on what the other side of Labour’s losses will look like. While they note that Reform’s support may have plateaued somewhat since last year’s surge, they describe substantial gains as unavoidable given the low base from which the party is starting.
They write: “It may be that support for Reform has plateaued, but given it won only three seats four years ago, substantial gains from such a low base are inevitable.”
Projections suggest Reform could take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk and Suffolk – a historic realignment in England’s rural heartlands that would give the party its first major metropolitan and county council bases.
In London, the picture is more complex. In Havering, the recent defection to Reform of Romford MP Andrew Rosindell could bring council-level gains in its wake, while across several outer London boroughs including Bromley and Bexley, Reform is expected to make significant inroads into Conservative-held territory.
The Green squeeze on Labour
Alongside the Reform surge, Labour faces a simultaneous squeeze from the Greens – particularly in London and other major urban centres where the party has seen multiple councillor defections in recent months.
Several Labour councillors have defected to the Greens in Brent, Lewisham and Southwark in recent months, with Green gains also expected in north-east boroughs including Hackney, Islington and Newham.
Hastings Borough Council has been identified as a potential Green majority target, with the party having polled 38% and won nine seats in the 2024 locals. In Norwich, the Greens could overtake Labour as the largest party on the city council. In Hackney – one of five London boroughs where council elections coincide with a mayoral contest – Green activists are optimistic about the chances of their mayoral candidate Zoë Garbett, with the borough having been among the top 20 nationally for Green vote share and vote increase in the 2024 general election.
Birmingham presents a particular challenge. All 101 council seats fall vacant in one go, and since the 2022 elections a dozen Labour councillors have resigned from the party. Labour’s already narrow majority is in danger from pro-Gaza Independents, Workers’ Party candidates, and the knock-on effects of the long-running bin workers’ strike.
Scotland and Wales
Beyond England, the picture in Scotland and Wales is equally troubling for the Prime Minister. Polls currently point to Labour ending up in third place in both devolved parliaments. In Wales, where Labour has not lost a Senedd election since devolution began in 1999, defeat would be described by political observers as “cataclysmic.”
Keir Starmer launched the local election campaign on Monday, urging candidates to tell voters on the doorstep to “vote Labour because of our values, vote Labour because of our leadership.” He framed the elections against a backdrop of global uncertainty, referencing both the Ukraine conflict and the ongoing Iran war as context for Labour’s pitch on stable, responsible government.
A Labour source sought to manage expectations, telling the Mirror: “Mid-term local elections tend to be difficult for incumbent governments. They aren’t usually a barometer for how governments do at the next general election. We’ll be fighting for every vote.”
What the numbers could mean for Starmer’s leadership
The Rallings and Thrasher analysis is not merely an academic exercise. Their projections carry direct political consequences for Starmer’s position as Labour leader.
If losses approach 1,000 seats, the result will be painful but survivable – an outcome the party can frame as a predictable mid-term correction. If they approach 2,000, the pressure on Starmer to resign will likely become overwhelming. With approval ratings already deeply negative and a YouGov poll earlier this month finding that a majority of the public considered him at least as sleazy as Boris Johnson, the political ground is already precarious.
Rallings and Thrasher concluded their analysis of last year’s elections with a warning that speaks directly to 2026: “Labour’s so-called ‘loveless landslide’ may be dismantled within a single parliament.”
With five weeks to go until polling day, and no sign in the data that the trajectory has shifted meaningfully in Labour’s favour, that prospect is looking less like a warning and more like a forecast.
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