Anas Sarwar spent the first half of this year warning that Westminster was sinking Scottish Labour.
He called for Keir Starmer to resign in February. By April, he was reportedly pressing the UK government to allow more drilling in the North Sea, adding to pressure on Westminster over its energy policy.
None of it spared the party in May. Scottish Labour won 17 seats at the Holyrood election, five fewer than in 2021, and finished level with Reform UK on seats. It was Labour’s worst result since devolution. Sarwar lost Glasgow Cathcart and Pollok, returning to Parliament through the regional list.
Andy Burnham has now replaced Starmer. The policy causing Sarwar difficulty has carried over.
Dame Theresa Villiers, the former environment secretary and Cabinet minister, says Labour’s approach to new North Sea drilling is costing jobs and support in Scotland.
“Scottish Labour are in all sorts of trouble and a new Prime Minister isn’t going to change that. Anas Sarwar may have got out in front in calling for Keir Starmer to go, but the real problem Labour face in Scotland is their refusal to allow new drilling in the North Sea. That is costing jobs and it cost Labour the two recent by elections. But there is no sign that Mr Burnham is going to fix that.”
What the two by-elections actually showed
The contests were held on 18 June in Aberdeen South and Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
Labour did not enter either contest as the incumbent. The relevant evidence is its fall in support, not the loss of two sitting Labour MPs.
Aberdeen South produced the sharper warning. Labour had won almost a quarter of the vote there at the 2024 general election. Its candidate, Nurul Hoque Ali, received 1,550 votes in the by-election and finished fourth on 5.4 per cent.
The Conservatives gained the seat from the SNP after placing oil, gas and local employment at the centre of their campaign. Douglas Lumsden took 14,308 votes, close to half of all valid votes, and won by more than 6,000.
Labour’s performance in Arbroath and Broughty Ferry was also damaging. The party had finished fewer than 1,000 votes behind the SNP in 2024. This time, Labour came fourth with 3,651 votes. The SNP retained the seat comfortably.
Those figures cannot prove that drilling policy caused either result. Turnout was low, the SNP was defending both constituencies and dissatisfaction with Starmer’s government extended well beyond energy.
Even so, Labour falling from almost 25 per cent to 5.4 per cent in Aberdeen South is difficult to dismiss. The winning campaign treated the election as a verdict on the future of the North Sea.
Sarwar had already pushed for more drilling
Sarwar has argued that oil and gas will remain part of Britain’s energy mix for decades and reportedly lobbied then-energy secretary Ed Miliband to permit more drilling.
Licensing is controlled at Westminster. Sarwar can press ministers, but he cannot make licensing decisions from Holyrood.
Burnham has chosen to retain the UK government’s ban on new exploration licences. Existing fields can continue operating for their full lifespan, while limited production connected to current infrastructure may proceed through tiebacks.
The government says declining reserves contributed to more than 70,000 North Sea oil and gas jobs being lost between 2016 and 2023, a backdrop that sits alongside the wider energy price pressures Ed Miliband has separately been trying to manage since taking on the foreign brief.
For Sarwar, the transition timetable is politically awkward. Workers are expected to gain access to the North Sea Jobs Service soon, but £12 million of the joint transition funding is not scheduled to be rolled out until 2027/28 and 2028/29.
Scottish Labour must explain how Sarwar’s call for more drilling fits with a UK policy that rules out new exploration licences. The party fought the Aberdeen South by-election with that question unresolved and won 1,550 votes.
Dame Theresa Villiers is represented for speaking engagements by Champions Speakers Agency.
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